XRP holders keep tokens off exchanges despite losses

XRP holders continue to withdraw tokens from exchanges and hold their positions despite heavy losses, according to Bitrue Research Institute. The report describes a market in which selling pressure has eased, but the price has remained near USD $1.

Based on Coinglass spot flow data, exchange balances fell across every measured period: 30, 60, 90 and 150 days. Over the last 30 days, USD $1.85 billion in XRP left exchanges against USD $1.69 billion in inflows, for a net outflow of USD $163.58 million. Over 90 days, net outflows reached USD $568.57 million, and over 150 days they totalled USD $763.39 million.

The decline has reduced the amount of XRP immediately available for sale on trading venues. The institute said this pattern usually points to accumulation by longer-term holders, though current price action suggests demand has not kept pace.

"Exchange outflow patterns of this duration and consistency have historically aligned with accumulation phases," Bitrue Research Institute said. "In these phases, long-term holders absorb supply while short-term traders remain on the sidelines."

Loss-making holders

Glassnode data cited in the report put XRP's aggregate realised price at about USD $1.48, compared with a spot price near USD $1.02. On that basis, around 60% of circulating supply is being held at a loss, with the average drawdown estimated at more than 30% from cost basis.

The report argued that many of the wallets moving XRP off exchanges are not locking in gains. Instead, the holders appear to be retaining positions while underwater.

Another indicator was the 90-day realised profit-to-loss ratio. The figures cited showed the ratio at 0.38 on June 9, meaning USD $0.38 in profit was realised for every USD $1 in losses. By June 25, the reading had fallen to 0.33, the weakest level since August 2022, according to the institute.

For comparison, the same ratio reached 50 during XRP's 2025 rally, when realised profits heavily outweighed losses. The latest reading points to a sharp reversal in investor outcomes since then.

Leverage unwound

The derivatives market has also contracted. According to the report, XRP futures open interest peaked at about USD $10 billion in July 2025, when the token reached an all-time high of USD $3.65. By mid-June 2026, open interest had fallen to around USD $2.55 billion, and by early August it was near USD $2.25 billion.

That represents a decline of roughly 75% from the peak. In practical terms, most of the leverage built up during the earlier rally has now been removed from the market.

This deleveraging has stripped out the speculative activity that can magnify price swings, the institute said. What remains is a spot market dominated by holders sitting on losses, with limited new capital entering and less forced selling than before.

"The convergence of collapsing open interest, deeply depressed profit-to-loss ratios, and persistent exchange outflows is consistent with the late stage of a downtrend," Bitrue Research Institute said. "At that stage, sellers have largely exhausted themselves."

Waiting for demand

The missing element, the report said, is demand. Lower exchange supply and reduced leverage have not been enough to lift XRP while buyers remain cautious.

The report also pointed to regulatory uncertainty in the United States as one reason traders may still be waiting. The CLARITY Act, a proposed crypto regulatory framework, has been delayed in the Senate, making it a potential market focus but not a confirmed trigger for renewed activity.

Broader crypto sentiment could also shape XRP's next move. Shifts in macroeconomic conditions, institutional investment flows or Bitcoin price action could alter the current balance between limited selling and limited buying, the institute said.

For now, the data shows a market in which leverage has largely been cleared, exchange supply has been reduced, and many holders remain underwater. XRP is still trading well below the average acquisition price cited in the report, at roughly USD $1.02 against a realised price of USD $1.48.

The institute's central finding was that holders have not been exiting in size despite the losses, and that the price has yet to respond to the reduction in sell-side supply.