European CFOs turn to AI as geopolitical risk rises

Finance chiefs across Europe face mounting pressure from geopolitical shocks, volatile energy costs and rising investment in artificial intelligence, as new research and industry voices point to a sharp shift in how treasurers and chief financial officers manage risk, cash and technology.

Surveys from J.P. Morgan and Deloitte suggest caution is rising, with finance leaders reshaping budgeting cycles, governance models and treasury operations in response.

J.P. Morgan's latest EMEA Treasurers Forum research shows more than half of treasurers now cite geopolitical tensions as the main barrier to long-term business planning, ahead of inflation and interest rates. Many finance teams are moving away from fixed budgeting cycles towards continuous scenario planning, adding strain on resources and pulling focus from longer-term strategy.

European fintech Rydoo sees the shift in its client base and in conversations with finance leaders. Aidana Zhakupbekova, Cofo at Rydoo, said finance teams can no longer rely on monthly or quarterly closes for detailed analysis when external conditions change so frequently.

"It's unsurprising that over half of treasurers see geopolitical tensions as their biggest barrier to long-term planning. With the global environment shifting weekly, sometimes daily, a company needs to understand how it might have been hit. CFOs can't necessarily wait for a month to close or for a quarter to close to do the full business analysis from scratch, so decision making needs to become much more agile," said Aidana Zhakupbekova, COFO at Rydoo.

AI-based tools are now central to many responses to this volatility. Treasurers are prioritising improvements in cash flow and working capital, with new technology close behind as a strategic focus. AI adoption is concentrated on productivity gains, forecasting accuracy and fraud detection rather than experimental use cases.

"This is where AI is supporting finance departments, offering real-time oversight of spending and updating budgets and forecasts accordingly. This visibility is becoming a necessity for managing liquidity and protecting margins," said Zhakupbekova.

She added that as geopolitical and economic uncertainty continues to weigh on finance departments, CFOs will keep using AI to automate routine tasks such as reporting and expense management, freeing up time for more strategic decision-making.

Deloitte's latest European CFO Survey underlines the strain in boardrooms. The proportion of European CFOs who feel less optimistic about their company's financial prospects than they did three months earlier has almost doubled, from 25% to 48%. Concerns about geopolitical risk, energy prices and margin compression dominate responses from more than 1,100 finance leaders across 12 countries.

Laurent Descout, Chief Executive Officer and Co-Founder of Neo, said many CFOs still see scope to reduce exposure to external shocks by improving visibility across financial operations and currency positions.

"This is a highly pressurised time for European CFOs, so, understandably, pessimism is rising. Geopolitical risk, higher energy costs and continued pressure on margins are making the operating environment more challenging. While CFOs cannot control those external pressures, they can control how exposed their business is to them. If the finance function has a clear view of cash and liquidity, it can manage currency risk effectively and ensure that firms can respond promptly when conditions change.

"As CFOs take on a bigger role in shaping business strategy, they need the right tools to do it. Stronger data and clearer visibility across treasury, payments and FX can help them make faster decisions, manage exposure more effectively and ensure they can hold and pay in the right currencies when needed. That can help businesses reduce unnecessary costs, protect margins and respond faster when conditions change," said Laurent Descout, Chief Executive Officer and Co-Founder at Neo.

The tension between rapid AI deployment and robust financial governance is emerging as another fault line. Earnings updates from large corporates show rising spending on AI projects. Deloitte's CFO Signals research reports that many CFOs feel pressure to approve AI investments even when the long-term return and risk profile remain uncertain.

Matthias Steinberg, Chief Operating Officer and Chief Financial Officer at MindBridge, said many finance leaders are struggling to align aggressive AI rollouts with risk management frameworks designed for slower, more deterministic technologies.

"Earnings season is laying bare just how much money companies are pumping into AI. For CFOs, it is a moment to reflect on how these investments are performing and make the critical decision on whether to keep the money flowing. Many of these CFOs will be feeling decidedly uncomfortable.

"Deloitte's CFO Signals survey supports this. Its findings highlight that the biggest challenge for CFOs is balancing pressure to deploy AI quickly while still managing risk. Companies invest in these technologies to avoid falling behind, but they remain uncertain about the output. At the same time, most CFOs are only somewhat confident in the AI governance frameworks they work with. Privacy, data security, IP protection, cost control, as well as the accuracy and integrity of data, are all risks that need to be managed," said Matthias Steinberg, Chief Operating Officer and Chief Financial Officer at MindBridge.

Steinberg links this discomfort to the nature of modern AI and the limited track record of many tools. He said AI is active across functions and can generate decisions or insights at high speed in environments where risk and compliance rules evolve more slowly.

"The lack of trust in AI governance is due to a more fundamental problem. AI is now used across the organisation and can produce output at machine speed. At the same time, there is limited history and experience at all levels, a rapidly evolving product, expanding costs and an underlying technology that is non-deterministic by design. While AI is already powerful and increasingly used to automate manual processes or process steps, traditional assurance lacks the speed, scale and flexibility to cope with this new challenge," said Steinberg.

Some finance leaders are now exploring what Steinberg describes as "autonomous financial oversight". He defines this as an operational layer that monitors financial flows and AI-driven processes in parallel, rather than relying on periodic human review alone.

"This is where autonomous financial oversight comes in, which I expect will be a key topic in the coming months. I do not believe we should consider AI only as an interesting way of generating an overview. Autonomous financial oversight is the independent operational layer that governs autonomous finance. It continuously monitors financial activity across systems of record, detects risk, explains findings and enables governed action before exposure becomes material. Autonomous systems require execution infrastructure to operate, but they also require oversight infrastructure to be trusted," said Steinberg.

New tools that track spending, treasury exposures and AI-driven processes in near real time are now central to many CFO agendas. Finance chiefs adopting these models aim to reduce the lag between emerging risks and management decisions, while gaining more control over how AI systems interact with core ledgers, payments and forecasts.

"It will be the organisations that understand that financial AI is not only a risky technology but also a tool for ensuring good governance that are going to get ahead. When financial oversight is a constant and trusted process, CFOs will no longer have to worry about delayed information," said Steinberg.